Coup hits the 90 day mark with no end in sight; rockets hit two Tatmadaw air bases; protest numbers again on the rise; Myanmar approaches economic collapse, doubling of poverty; Tatmadaw developing "white list" of allowable websites/applications; ethnic armed groups take steps towards unity as fighting continues in Karen and Kachin between unilateral Tatmadaw ceasefire extension; UNSC meets, fails to agree on statement; Bangladesh transfers Rohingya rescued from boat to Bhasan Char
- Coup, now 90 days old, has eviscerated (already weak) rule of law: The coup is now 90 days old, but still incomplete. While it is obvious that the Tatmadaw is the primary cause of the instability it says it must remedy before engaging with ASEAN, it is worth emphasizing just how deeply security forces have eviscerated the rule of law since the coup, with crackdowns on protesters, arbitrary detentions, torture, extortion and theft, and laws and directives that further undermine the rule of law (including recently amending the Legal Aid Law to further restrict access to legal assistance). And despite commitments to an immediate cessation of violence, six civilians have been killed since the ASEAN summit according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners and nearly 3,500 are still detained, while state media for the first time named student union leaders among its daily wanted lists (doctors, journalists, and celebrities have been targeted previously). Among those detained is a Monywa protest leader who was arrested on April 15 after his motorbike was hit by an unmarked military vehicle; Win Moe Aung now faces high treason charges to complement nine other charges already filed and images on state media appear to show him having been beaten while in detention.
- Rocket attacks on Tatmadaw bases in Meiktila and Magway: Several rockets were fired at Tatmadaw bases in Meiktila (Mandalay) and Magway in central Myanmar on Thursday morning. Though the military claims there were no casualties, Russian state media is reporting six deaths.
- Defense forces continue to fight back:The Chinland Defense Force now claims it killed 30 Tatmadaw soldiers over four days of fighting earlier this week. In a statement, the group explained its rationale for forming. In neighboring Sagaing Region, a Tatmadaw defector was shot dead in Tamu on Tuesday while defending protesters and prompting civilian resistance fighters to kill three soldiers Tuesday night.
- Protest numbers on the rise:Despite the risks, protests are again on the rise across the country. In recent days, protesters braved the rain in Yangon and took to the streets in Kalay (Sagaing), Dawei (Tanintharyi), Myitkyina and Hpakant (Kachin), Bago, and Mandalay.
- Myanmar is "approaching the point of economic collapse": If the current political crisis persists, UNDP predicts Myanmar's poverty rate could double to nearly half the population (25 million people) by early 2022 when "the shock from the crisis will have resulted in significant losses of wages and income, particularly from small businesses, and a drop in access to food, basic services and social protection." Women and children are expected to be particularly hard-hit, especially in urban areas, which have been "ground zero for the pandemic and the focus of the most severe crackdowns." Emblematic of the economy's struggles are the migrant workers in industrial Hlaing Thayar in Yangon, many of whom are women that worked in garment factories: a bloody crackdown in mid-March prompted tens of thousands of workers to return to their ancestral villages, but, absent employment opportunities there, they are beginning to return to Hlaing Thayar even though few jobs are available and prices are rising. In some parts of Kachin, fuel prices are four times the price of that in Yangon at some 4,000 kyat per liter.
- Tatmadaw developing "white list" of platforms for limited internet access: So as to reduce the impact of on-going internet restrictions, the military is creating a "white list" of mobile applications that are allowed access, including banking and business mobile applications.
- With internet cut and media targeted, leaflets provide a lifeline: A combination of news about protests in Myanmar, international reactions, and safety tips, leaflets are providing a critical lifeline of news to those that would otherwise be reliant on state-run media given on-going internet restrictions (to all but fiber internet) and crackdowns on the press (over 70 journalists have been arrested, more than 40 are still detained, the licenses of several prominent media outlets have been revoked, and no private print media remain).
- Ethnic armed groups take steps towards unity: After the 10 signatories to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) met earlier this week, they agreed to establish a committee to reach out to non-signatories to the NCA so as to form a broader coalition among ethnic armed groups. While some of the non-signatories, most notably the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), has been engaged in intense fighting with the Tatmadaw and is likely to respond positively, others, like the powerful United Wa State Army have been more unwilling to seek changes to the status quo. While the Arakan Army (AA) has been more vocal of late, the AA chief's sister and brother are both facing terrorism charges, with the latter due in court next week.
- The Tatmadaw extends unilateral ceasefire as conflict in Karen and Kachin continue: The Tatmadaw extended its unilateral ceasefire through May, even as it continued to conduct airstrikes in Karen and Kachin States. In Karen, following the Karen National Union (KNU) armed wing took over a Tatmadaw base on the border with Thailand, the Tatmadaw continued airstrikes in Karen, prompting some 2,000 refugees to cross into Thailand, Thailand blocking humanitarian access, and civil society groups saying thousands more are prepared to flee. There have apparently been more than 200 clashes between the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Tatmadaw since the coup, spanning all seven of the KNU brigade areas. Fighting also continues in Kachin State, where the Tatmadaw has conducted airstrikes in Momauk, around the area the KIA captured the Alaw Bum base in late March, though the KIA claimed to kill 20 members of the 77th Light Infantry Division.
- The hundi system as an (imperfect) means of getting money into Myanmar: CASS has a useful report on Myanmar's hundi system (see attached), an informal means of money transfer through trusted individuals and companies that is often part of a larger business. Even before the coup, the hundi system was a critical mean\s of money transfer (55% of Myanmar migrant workers used the system compared to 2% who used formal transfers). While the hundi system is ubiquitous and has fairly high capacity to transfer funds, however, the Tatmadaw and military intelligence track hundi transfers and CASS notes that "hundi networks are also not necessarily sustainable, carry significant risk, and should be considered a solution of necessity rather than an ideal financial transfer mechanism." In terms of engaging with the system, CASS recommends relying on local staff and networks' knowledge, sending smaller payments frequently, conducting political due diligence, and that donors must be flexible enough to allow hundi transfers despite their informality.
- International response
- UN Security Council meets on Myanmar again: The UN Security Council held a private meeting on Myanmar Friday following last week's ASAN summit, with briefings from a representative from Brunei, current ASEAN Chair, and the UN Special Envoy, who warned of lagging momentum if ASEAN's five point consensus is not quickly implemented. The Council failed to agree to a statement on Friday, with China and Russia rejecting draft language that "once again strongly condemned violence against peaceful protestors" and "reiterated their call on the military to exercise utmost restraint." While much has now been written about the ASEAN summit, Thai analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak sums it up well, saying the ASEAN summit was a good deal for Min Aung Hlaing because "He gained immediate recognition and a semblance of legitimacy as head of Myanmar's government" while "The concessions he has to make from ASEAN's consensus can be done on his own terms when he so chooses because there is no timetable" and "ASEAN's envoy and visiting team can also be received under Tatmadaw conditions on its own turf."
- The junta continues to get a seat at the table: Though Myanmar's junta has not been formally recognized as Myanmar's government, it continues to get tacit recognition through the participation of military-appointed civilians at UN and ASEAN meetings. The junta-appointed Deputy Minister for Investment and Foreign Economic Relations participated in UNESCAP meetings this week and military-appointed officials have joined a steady stream of ASEAN meetings (beyond last weekend's ASEAN summit), including a recent UNODC meeting attended by a sanctioned Tatmadaw lieutenant general. As the National Unity Government (NUG) pushes for recognition, a good thread on why governments are likely to grant de jure recognition to the junta or de facto recognition to the NUG.
- EU extends Myanmar sanctions through April 2022: Though it did not announce any new sanctions, the EU extended existing sanctions on Myanmar through April 2022, including those on individuals and military-controlled conglomerates MEC and MEHL.
- Bangladesh official admits to Bhasan Char escape attempts: The Bangladesh Navy's director of the Bhasan Char project admitted that Bangladesh had caught Rohingya trying to flee the island, but denied recent reports of physical abuse. Irrespective of the reports of abuse, however, that Bangladesh has admitted that Rohingya are trying to leave the island, in combination with 30 Rohingya recently involuntary relocated to Bhasan Char, further undermines stated commitments by Bangladesh that all relocations would be voluntary.
Steve Ross
Senior Advisor and Program Director
Richardson Center for Global Engagement
